How To Be Prepared For The Swine Flu
The worst side effect of swine flu!
We’re now into a Phase 4 Swine Flu Pandemic! Get your plastic tarps and duct tape! I hope your freezer is stocked because there’s no telling how long you’re going to need to cordon yourselves off from the rest of civilization to avoid the dreaded swine flu.
With the media frenzy surrounding this story, it must be pretty bad, right? Well, only if you consider a whopping sixty-four cases to be bad. Sixty-four! That’s it, at least in the United States. Of those 64 infections thus far in the US, 45 of them are in New York City. So if you live outside of The Big Apple, you can probably rest assured that you’ll be okay. Mexico City has been hit significantly harder, with around 150 or so deaths. But there are no known deaths outside of Mexico City.
As of the time I’m writing this, 4 of the top 5 Latest News stories on CNN.com are about the swine flu. This is big news! Does anyone remember the proposed Bird Flu Pandemic of a year or so ago? Does anyone remember the big scare, the fears of wiping out a third of the population, and the stockpiling of vaccines? And does anyone remember that it fizzled out without much of anything? But keep worrying…‘Swine flu [is] more dangerous than bird flu’
What’re The Odds?
Let’s do some math here. There are approximately 305 million people in the United States. And there are 64 confirmed cases of the swine flu, as of 11am on April 28th, 2009 (yesterday). That means that a whopping 0.00000021% of the citizens in the United States have been infected. Your odds of winning the Powerball grand prize are 0.0000000051%. So you have approximately 40x greater odds of catching the swine flu than of winning the Powerball grand prize. But 40 multiplied by “nearly zero” is…still nearly zero.
Edit: As of yesterday morning, the CDC is reporting 109 infections and 1 death. So that means that 0.00000036% of US citizens are infected, still a minuscule number. But as George and Russell pointed out in the comments, your odds of infection are not actually that number there. That would more appropriately be the odds of meeting an infected person.
Before someone points out that the pandemic is still in its early stages, I know that. The reality is that there’s always some virus roaming around that’s ready to be the next big thing and the media is only blowing this up because it needs a big story to keep you coming back. If it turns out to be the real deal, then I’ll have to admit to being wrong. As of now though, I’m not worrying about this one.
Our Fear Of The Exotic Keeps Us From Making The Necessary Changes
So why are we always concerned about the things with the remotest possibility of hurting us? I recall an article I read during the Bird Flu nonsense. A doctor described several patients that were absolutely terrified that they were going to catch Bird Flu. One of them had emphysema and was still smoking, yet was concerned about Bird Flu. The other had AIDS and refused to take any medication for it…yet was concerned about Bird Flu. Why don’t we worry about the things we can affect?
How many people die each year of heart disease and cancer, brought on by unhealthy lifestyles? Click the picture to the left. One in five of all deaths are related to heart disease. One in seven are cancer. That means that just over 1/3 of all people in the United States die of either heart disease or cancer. Add in stroke and we’re up to a solid 40% of all deaths.
One in 84 deaths are a result of a car accident, yet the news isn’t all over that. It’s too mundane, too everyday. “Four car pileup, two deaths, blah, blah. Let’s get back to this swine flu thing that hasn’t killed anyone yet.” How come no one is worried about the 20 deaths per year caused by bee stings? That is a more everyday concern.
So here we go. If you take nothing else from this article, take this away: You are more likely to die from eating garbage foods and from the spare tire you’re carrying around than you are to die from Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Dog Flu, or Whale Flu.
Protecting Yourself From Swine Flu
Now, there’s a difference between being vigilant and being paralyzed. Taking care of your health and your immune system is just a smart way to live. Altering your life to avoid a disease that’s affected 1 in (approximately) every 5,000,000 people is a way of focusing on the wrong thing. Worry about the things you can control.
Who knows if there’s even a way to really protect yourself from this virus? I certainly don’t. But I’m just going to keep on living a healthy life, keeping my immune system strong, and enjoying myself. Maybe it won’t be enough, especially since it seems to target the young and healthy more than the elderly and very young through an immune cascade that causes an overresponse of our healthy immune systems. Who knows…maybe the best way to avoid dying from Swine Flu is to suppress my immune system. But that’s not going to happen.
So if Swine Flu comes a-knockin’, I’ll deal with it then. Avoiding pork isn’t going to cut it either because the flu isn’t transmitted through food. So eat your pastured pork and avoid licking infected pigs. That’ll probably be enough.
If you’re looking for further reading on protecting yourself from the flu, check out Mike’s post from a few months back: Beat The Flu For $4 A Month.
Take charge of your own health! Don’t worry about distant threats. Worry about the threats in your everyday life that you inflict on yourself. Worry about the donuts. Worry about driving without a seat belt. Are you concerned about Swine Flu?
Note: I seem to lack the ability to type “swine”. I typed “swing” so many times writing this post!
33 Reader Comments
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Haha, fantastic article Scott, as always! But stress for finals has caught up with me and I have ingested 1.5 doughnuts in the past week. I should start drafting out a will now…
I was just having a conversation with my co-worker before I checked the website this morning, and we both agreed that all of the news articles mentioned the death toll from the flu in Mexico (another example of something unwanted crossing the border?), but never touched upon the differences regarding health care, sanitation, access to treatment, etc etc. These are very important differences that the media has left out, to no surprise.
Amazing how easy it is to frighten people who don’t like to do their own investigation/research…
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Let me first say that I love your site, I think that it’s excellent, and I have shared many posts with a very broad distribution of people. Further, I agree with your assessment of the risk. I also agree about immune system, seatbelts, sugar, etc. All right on point.
I do live in New York City. I have a pregnant wife, a three year old, and an 14 month old. There are so many people here, that it’s easy to see how things spread, and for me, living hear, and hearing about dead children, it’s simply impossible for me to not worry a little. We are taking precautions, and not overdoing it, but I don’t think that some reasonable concern is unwarranted in my case. They don’t know enough about the strain yet. If you catch it early, it seems that it is fine. If it spreads all over, and everyone needs Tamiflu, then we have a problem. The US stockpile = 25% of the population. I don’t see it getting that bad, but I don’t think that anyone saw the 1918 Spanish Flu coming, which killed an estimated 50mm. I do NOT think we are dealing with a massively fatal pandemic, but it’s kind of hard to not worry, with young children, who are developing their immune systems, living where I live.
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Funny, I actually read an article the other day that said Americans were being spared somewhat because of their crappy SAD of refined carbs and PUFAs. He mentioned the diet would ruin their lives in the long run but was affording them protection because of the constant inflammation now. I guess this doctor a diet we would consider healthy and he was glad to be living in Iowa or Idaho or somewhere where it would take a while to get to. I though his theory was a little out there but maybe I didn’t understand how the flu kills.
Joe
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Fear —> Media —-> Panic —-> Money to be made selling “safe solution”
Sad how the media LOVES Panic and spreading fear. Fear sells afterall. That and I am sure with every fear, there is a drug/vaccine to be spread to save the day (Billions to be made that way). No profit in keeping people healthy with prevention daily.
I’d rather focus on daily prevention, maximum immune system and taking my chances…..as the solutions can be worse than the original problem:
“The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) estimates that Vioxx may have contributed to 27,785 heart attacks and sudden cardiac deaths between 1999 and 2003. The estimate is based on the number of prescriptions issued for Vioxx between 1999 and 2003.”
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I always type “flue” instead of “flu” — our brains are way more complex than we realize!
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according to the news reports this morning, the death of a 23 month old in TX was caused by swine flu… it’s the first death in the US that has been connected to the swine flu. further investigation reveals that the child recently came here from Mexico. I personally think that the media is responsible for creating the panic surrounding this virus… I’m tired of hearing all the reports on the news when 90% of the news coverage is about swine flu… I would rather ramp up my immune system, rather than buying a supply of face masks or worrying about wether or not I can shake someone’s hand…
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Funny that the only reason for the existance of the CDC(Center for Disease Control and Prevention) is to control any threatening pandemics. The panic reinforces their jobs. So I wonder who is behind the cause of the panic in the first place?
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I’m sorry, but your odds calculated for catching swine flu are grossly inaccurate.
The powerball does not spread. Flu does. In fact, just being in the same room as someone who has it and coughs dramatically increases your chance of getting it…unlike the powerball unfortunately. Then as more people get it, the odds rise. I’m not trying to scare people, because I agree with your idea that people shouldn’t hide away in fear, but you’ve misunderstood the concept of infection.
Aiding your immune system is something everyone should be conscious of all the time. If it takes a pandemic to wake people up to washing their hands or eating more vegetables, then it’s a good thing.
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Jeff, definitely nothing wrong with reasonable concern and diligence. Paralyzing fear is a different animal altogether.
Marti, I heard about that. But here’s an interesting article: Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO. CDC gives high numbers…WHO doesn’t.
George, I understand the concept just fine….it was more illustrative that we have all this media hype over something that has affected such a tiny, miniscule, not even on the radar number of people in the United States as to be laughable. But yes, the flu spreads and we’ll have to see if all of this panic is warranted. I have a feeling this will fizzle out just like SARS, Bird Flu, and West Nile Virus.
Cheers
Scott
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I have read (Wikipedia and elsewhere) that the Spanish Flu deaths are believed to have been the result of over reaction by the victim’s immune system. A “cytokine storm” provoked by the flu virus is what actually killed people. This is the explanation for why it was fatal to an otherwise relatively healthy demographic of young adults, who would be expected to have strong immune responses. This may also explain the relatively mild symptoms sen in America. Maybe we should scarf donuts to protect ourselves!?
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Here is an interesting thread about the threat of fu and also cytokine storms. The approach to treating it is exactly counter-intuitive to how you would think. Pop down a bunch of immune boosters and anti-oxidants and perhaps boost yourself to death.
I think there is no reason to panic, but there is also no excuse not to be reasonably prepared in these uncertain times. Especially since there are elements of this that lend more towards bioterrorism than a naturally occurring incidence of flu.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=14854&page=1&pp=40&highlight=therapeutic+interventions
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I agree with George I think that odds calculated are grossly miscalculated to illustrate a point. I wouldn’t worry at all about the Swine flu but I do worry about potential effects it may have on her being pregnant especially considering we don’t know the effects of these Schedule C drugs they plan on using. Being in public health she is much more succeptable to these things than the rest of the public is.
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Phil and Pooti, that’s the correct term I was looking for…cytokine storm.
I suppose it would have been more accurate had I calculated the odds not of catching swine flu, but of coming into contact with someone that has it at that point in time. Anyway, Mike, definitely agree with you about the drugs. I think we’re going to see more of a push for vaccination of everyone.
Cheers
Scott
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Analogizing swine flu to powerball is quite misleading, Scott, and your response to George shows that you don’t really understand the hype about swine flu. This is one of the rare times where I think absurd media hype is, on net, beneficial.
Your argument is that the media is focusing on something that has affected a very small percentage of the population, but your analysis is missing two key variables, namely: time and impact.
Unlike powerball and the diseases of modernity, flu spreads and spreads very quickly (and kills very quickly). Very quickly! That handful of people today could turn into 50% of the global population in a shockingly fast amount of time if not properly controlled, and the economic (not to mention human) toll could be catastrophic, especially as we are in the midst of large recession.
Fear in this case is necessary and good because it drives people to vigilance. Yes, some people will be paralyzed by irrational fears and if this outbreak goes the way of the outbreaks you’ve cited, then there will have been some waste. But if you are wrong, then you may be really really wrong. The downside risk is massive.
And the truth is, we do not know (in fact, can not know ex ante) the probability of this flu spreading. Pandemics are different animals from most things we encounter on a day-to-day basis.
Having said all that, your advice to people about what they should actually do is, I think, spot-on! My post is really a minor quibble even if it doesn’t come across that way – risk and probability are hobbies of mine.
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What saddens me the most is that we live in such a pathetic state of health and personal responsibility…..that we need widespread fear and panic to remind us to eat right, exercise and get sleep….although I would bet 90% of the people out there only get the message to get a vaccine shot and not do something about their self destructive immune depressing lifestyle habits.
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Im really glad i read this article. it really made me realize that we cant just let our everyday lives revolve around the Swine Flu. Now dont get me wrong im very sympathetic to the families who have loved ones that have been infected with the Swine flu, but the local news just talks about the Swine flu like its WW2. When i first heard about the swine flu im not gonna lie i was scared. Lysol and hand sanitizer were my new best friends. but as you really hear the numbers of americans versus the number of people infected…it really makes me a bit more relaxed. What i dont understand is why the news has not once said what could happen if you were infected with the swine flu. They never said “once you get it your dead.” but they also havent said “some people can just get over it like the normal flu.” these are some things i would like to know…anyone with answers..please fill me in.
-Sabrina
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Sabrina – CDC stats has the “seasonal” (aka normal) flu killing over 30,000 people a year! No one panics about that and many get over it just fine. Most deaths will come from those with weakened immune systems such as people with diseases already and elderly persons. Your daily focus should just be doing what you can to keep your immune system strong and your body healthy, not much more you should worry about as there will always be a “virus” out there….it’s just how strong your immune system is that determines what happens next.
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In a related post here’s a thing I did on the flu and things to think about (besides the standard exercise, real foods and sleep strategies):
http://lifespotlight.com/health/2009/01/27/beat-the-flu-for-4-a-month/
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thanks Mike OD.
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Great Article!
It’s swine flu mania at it’s peak!
I actually got some sort of stomach bug and because in my line of work I’m in the public schools ,I did have a sliver of doubt that I got it.
But,luckily no fever and cough just nausea and loss of appetite.2 days of home remedies and I’m as good as new.
Could you also post that those surgical masks are to keep the virus IN not OUT.
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Russell, you are right. I misspoke. What I calculated was actually the odds of meeting someone with swine flu at the moment I was writing the post (the odds are still less than double what I put up there). Thanks for setting me straight! (And thanks to George too!)
I still don’t think “fear” is a good term for what you’re saying…I think vigilance is and I hope that I illustrated as such. Vigilance is smart every single day of the year, not just when there’s a virus running amok.
It looks like vitamin D is protective against viral infections: Mercola
Cheers
Scott
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This whole hype is just plain silly. Join me and tell the media how silly they look.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=74316368663&ref=nf
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All of this is blown WAYY out of proportion. It’s just another flu, if you are infected, the doctors treat it like they would treat any other flu… and they themselves admitted to it. Keep your body active, eat properly while taking natural immune boosters such as garic, ginger, turmeric etc and you should be OK.
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FJ – good reminder on using “nature’s antibiotics” spices to keep the body/immune system running strong.
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Bah.. swine flue.. h1n1 whatever.. my friend works at a hospital in the emergency room, he was saying a few days ago they started getting hit constantly by people freaking out over this flu and not a single person has it. Funny yet not surprising how people allow the media and fear to control their lives… I’ll go hide in my giant plastic bubble now.
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Oh look, the Secretary of Homeland Security has gone on record saying that the swine flu is no worse than the regular flu. Surprise!
Cheers
Scott
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I read somewhere that flu and pneumonia stats are lumped together, so 30,000 aren’t necessarily dying from the flu. The greater number are succumbing to pneumonia, some developed along with the flu but the majority in isolation. It’s a very deceptive stat designed to create the seasonal scare and sell vaccines.
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Re Kevin’s comment about the emergency room, I read a story about a fellow (prisoner of war? can’t remember) who was tied to a chair, a small cut was made on his leg, and he could hear the blood dripping. But a recording of blood dripping was played, which he heard all night. By morning he was dead. His wound was superficial and clotted very soon. His mind killed him. People need to realize the power of their minds for good or evil and take control.
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[...] Swine Flu – Dr. Eades Swine Flu: Should You be Worried – LifeSpotlight.com H1ow N1ot to Get Swine Flu – Mark’s Daily [...]
Ya kill me with your humor! Love it!
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I love how everyone wants to blame the media. We know the media likes to blow things out of proportion from time to time, but this threat is very real. This is not a joke and not something to be the least bit passive about. (Until After this fall). Russell’s comments are absolutely correct.
Common Questions and my responses:
Q) “This isnt 1918, we have treatments for these things right?”
A) Wrong, we have no defense against unknown viruses, we are defenseless, there is not much we can do to stop it.
Q) Only a few people are dying, the media is blowing this out of proportion right?
A) That’s exactly what happened in 1918.
“A first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world. …. ” ..”The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died.”
Q) Yeah but what about Scott’s article and all his statistics?
A) Using probability theory to predict this type of viral infection is like predicting a hurricane on a foreign planet that we’ve never been to or seen. Sure its only light wind now but quite frankly no one has any idea how powerful the storm could get.
Q) Yeah but flu’s only harm the elderly and young children right?
A) Normally Yes. But if that’s the case then why are so many schools closing? Why are so many young adults being affected? Why is this happening and its not even flu season in the northern hemisphere? These were the warning signs that were ignored in the last pandemic that affected every other person worldwide.
Q) The media is downplaying this now, saying its not so bad.. Should I believe them?
A) I believe that when they told you the truth at the beginning.. the system already began to crack as people ordered tamiflu, mask, etc.. Then they backed off. hmm.. Now this is what EVERYONE will say now. “Well it doesn’t look that bad… but we don’t know what’s going to happen in the fall”
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[...] Swine flu: should you be worried and how to be prepared? [...]
I’m not sure if I am suppose to be scared or be prepared or stuff like that …..
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